Bank of America (BofA) sharply raised its 2026 platinum price forecast this week as US traders scramble to boost exports ahead of looming tariffs.
The rosy outlook gives once-struggling platinum heavyweights, by far the biggest employers in South Africa’s mining sector, “significant earnings leverage” in the new year, freeing up capital to keep previously unprofitable operations alive.
After recording its strongest annual performance on record in 2025, the price of platinum is now expected to breach $3,000/oz, more than triple the closing price at the end of 2024.
“Concern that the US may implement tariffs has been hanging over the [platinum group metal] PGM market,” BofA said.
To protect against possible duties, traders have been shipping ounces to North America en masse, sending the metal past a record $2,500/oz in late December. This week it continues to flirt with record highs, peaking at $2,404.50/oz on Monday.
South Africa’s mined supply, which shrank 5% in the first 10 months of last year after flooding and plant maintenance disrupted major mines in the first quarter, is expected to recover as prices remain elevated.
“With platinum and palladium prices now trading significantly above marginal costs of production, all major operations are back to positive margins,” the bank said. “At current spot prices, even the most expensive operations are making around $800/oz, after being unprofitable in 2024.”
The improbability of new mine openings means platinum markets could remain in deficit this year, with the sector still reeling from an extended period of unprofitable ounces, which saw local heavyweights lay off nearly 10,000 workers in 2024.
The World Bank, in its commodity markets outlook for October, predicted that platinum would gain 29% by end-2025 before adding 4% in 2026 and 2% in 2027.
The rally has already begun to reflect in local PGM miners’ latest results. Impala Platinum (Implats) in August declared its first dividend payout in nearly two years, signalling the board’s confidence in the market.
In a similar move, Northam Platinum in June declared a final dividend nearly triple that of the previous financial year, while Sibanye-Stillwater’s latest interim results show the miner strengthening its bottom line in the six months to end-June.
Platinum’s rally has already seen local miners recording triple-digit share price growth in recent months.
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The JSE precious metals & mining index on Monday breached a record 155,420 points as Implats and Northam soared more than 6% each, while the metal’s spot price rose. The latter is now up almost 15% so far this month. Valterra Platinum, the world’s biggest producer of the metal, was up about 5% at market close, having added about 150% in the past 12 months.
Surging gold prices added to momentum in the precious metal market this week, with bullion soaring past $4,600/oz for the first time on Monday as the US justice department opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, fuelling concern about the independence of the world’s most powerful central bank.
The BofA has said there is a pathway to gold hitting $5,000 due to the wider macro environment, including the US’s unorthodox economic policies under President Donald Trump.
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