We are four days into US and Israeli co-ordinated air strikes against Iran. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several leaders of the Iranian regime have been killed. Millions in and outside Iran worry about what ― or who ― comes next.
In its retaliation, Iran attacked US assets across the Middle East, including Dubai, Bahrain and Qatar, widening the conflict to other parts of the volatile region.
American allies have offered their usual mix of caution and prevarication. Similar to the kidnapping of president Nicolas Maduro earlier this year, murmurs of hope for an effective Tehran regime change have stood in lieu of outright American condemnation.
This was to be expected. Since returning to office a year ago, President Donald Trump has flitted in and out of a perpetual grey zone with his nation’s historical friends. That is particularly true for Europe, whom he and his deputy have often characterised as freeloaders who sponge off US taxpayers.
There had been hope that nuclear talks with Iran were gaining momentum. Trump, however, had maintained a constant threat that something terrible would happen to Iran soon if no deal was reached. And while the talks were ongoing, the moment was seized.
The timing of the strikes is a matter of much debate. Last year, the US bombed Iranian military facilities and claimed to have “obliterated” its nuclear capability.
The war comes after the regime launched a deadly crackdown on popular protests on the streets of Iran. Trump has since called on Iranians to rise against the repressive Iranian theocracy and demanded that the army surrender in exchange for immunity. The call is naive. Iranians haven’t known democracy for generations, and opposition has been systematically crushed or exiled.
Assuming the regime is routed in coming days, it’s not apparent what will follow. In Venezuela, the US encouraged elements of the Maduro regime to continue running the country on US terms. After ousting Saddam Hussein in Iraq, chaos and instability ensued. Similarly, the killing of Muammar Gaddafi failed to bring either peace or democracy.
Two worrying scenarios might unfold. The remnants of the regime may crush any uprising. This could create more misery for the long-suffering ordinary Iranians and defer their freedom. The second scenario might include replacing Khamenei with a more radical theocrat.
Even more concerning is where and how far the violence might spread. Despite major defeats in recent years, it is not known how strong Iran’s proxies in the region are and what their response will be.
What makes the Iran attack more complicated is that it doesn’t seem to accord with Trump’s campaign message. As well as promising to put America first, he also vowed to end all wars. He has failed to end the Russia-Ukraine war, which entered its fourth year last month.
If Iran doesn’t surrender, Trump will have started a new war, which may drag the US into deploying troops in Iran. This may backfire badly. US voters, who are still hurting from his tariff policy, may turn away in the mid-terms in November.
Last week, he suffered a humiliating defeat when the Supreme Court of the US ruled that his tariffs were illegal.
Iranians deserve peace and democracy. Nearby states deserve a neighbour who won’t threaten them. The world community needs to ensure both objectives are achieved.
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