The National Freedom Party’s (NFP) withdrawal from the coalition government in KwaZulu-Natal could trigger the collapse of the provincial administration in SA’s second-largest economy, political analysts say.
KwaZulu-Natal has a budget of R158bn for 2025 and contributes about 16% to the national GDP. The coastal province is projected to grow 1.4% in 2025, slightly above the national rate of 1.2%, with growth expected to reach 2.1% and 2.3% in 2026 and 2027, respectively.
In a letter to NFP member and social development MEC Mbali Shinga on Wednesday, the party’s acting general secretary, Sunset Bheki Xaba, said the NFP had formally withdrawn with immediate effect from the coalition government as per the decision of its national executive committee (NEC) in a sitting on Monday. Xaba called on Shinga to resign as MEC by Thursday.
‘Significant development’
Better Governance Initiative (BGI) founder and director Sabelo Chalufu said the NFP’s decision was a “significant development in that it places the future of the government in jeopardy as the government survives primarily because of the NFP’s lone vote”.
“In the absence of that vote, the government is in real danger of collapsing if a motion of no confidence was to be called again. This threatens the long-term stability of the government and stability is required for the government to do its job properly in serving the residents,” Chalufu said.
In the absence of that vote, the government is in real danger of collapsing if a motion of no confidence was to be called again.
— Sabelo Chalufu, Better Governance Initiative founder and director
“The primary obstacle to the NFP’s formal withdrawal … is what the NFP’s member [Shinga] in the GPU [government of provincial unity] does — whether she toes the party line or not. The party is empowered to demand of her, as it has done, that she resigns, but it can’t resign for her. However, if she were to refuse, their only option would be to expel or replace her with someone who would comply. This would tip the scales in favour of the opposition to the GPU.
“Fundamentally, the residents of KwaZulu-Natal deserve a working, stable government. Who constitutes it is for the political parties to decide, given that no one party was given a majority…. this is what should occupy all the political parties. They should ensure that whatever they do, be it how the government should be constituted and the programmes it implements, must prioritise the interests of the residents and be done in compliance with the laws of the republic.”
Tshwane University of Technology political analyst Levy Ndou, whose thesis focused on coalition governments in SA, said the NFP’s decision meant many things.
“It means there is a possibility of a collapse of the government of provincial unity (GPU)… It also means that the MK [uMkhonto weSizwe party] could succeed if they go for a rerun for the removal of the premier Thami Ntuli,” Ndou said.
After the 2024 general elections, the 80-seat KwaZulu-Natal legislature saw the MK leading with 37 seats, followed by the IFP (15), ANC (14), DA (11), with the EFF (2) and NFP (1) also holding seats.
The GPU excludes MK, which sponsored a failed no-confidence motion against Ntuli in December, with the vote split 40-39.
Shinga is facing internal disciplinary charges, including gross misconduct, insubordination and defiance of party directives, after she allegedly failed to vote in support of the motion.
Ndou said it was not a foregone conclusion that the MK could succeed in removing Ntuli. “We are in a situation of uncertainty,” he said.
“This is an interesting development. Obviously, it does pose a threat to the power-sharing arrangement. There is no stability there. Ntuli is not off the hook. MK should have been the one at the helm of power,” Nelson Mandela University political analyst Ntsikelelo Breakfast said.
“But when they [MK] were contesting electoral outcomes in court the other parties were busy with power-sharing negotiations. That’s how they were outmanoeuvred.”
On Friday, the NFP NEC is set to hold a media briefing in Durban to “outline the reasons underpinning this decision and unpack the political and governance consequences emanating from the withdrawal”.
“The NEC will further clarify the party’s next course of action and what this decision entails for governance in the province of KwaZulu-Natal,” it said.
DA KwaZulu-Natal leader Francois Rodgers said the party had noted the NFP’s decision to withdraw from the GPU. “Obviously this is a choice that a political party can make. However, what we do question is … the motive behind it, because, from our perspective as a partner in the GPU, we found Mbali Shinga to be one of the better-performing MECs in the GPU,” Rodgers said.
He said the DA would continue to engage with parties, including the NFP to ensure “there is stability and the GPU in the province remains stable”.
In September, Gauteng premier Panyaza Lesufi and his KwaZulu-Natal counterpart, Ntuli, attended a bilateral meeting aimed at enhancing service delivery across two of SA’s economic engines responsible for nearly 50% of national GDP.
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